Understanding Survivorship Bias: Learning from the Unseen
Every inspirational speech or story by someone successful should have to start with a disclaimer about survivorship bias and its implications
Survivorship bias can distort our perception of reality by focusing on the stories of those who have survived or succeeded while ignoring those who haven't.
In the world of sports, coaches often encounter this bias when assessing player performance, success stories, or even developing game strategies.
Let's dive into what survivorship bias is, why it matters, and how it can impact youth sports.
What is Survivorship Bias?
Survivorship bias is the tendency to focus on survivors or success stories while ignoring those who have failed or perished.
This bias skews our perception by presenting a false sense of success, leading to faulty conclusions and risky decisions.
For example, listening only to the stories of successful athletes, you might conclude that a particular training regimen guarantees success, ignoring the countless others who followed the same regimen but didn't make it.
Survivorship Bias in Everyday Life
To understand survivorship bias, consider a common example: shark attacks.
When asked about the deadliest shark, most people immediately think of the great white, thanks to the influence of pop culture and sensational news reports.
But while great white sharks do occasionally attack humans, they aren't necessarily the most dangerous.
The reality is skewed by survivorship bias—there are more survivors to tell their stories about great white encounters compared to other, more deadly sharks like tiger sharks or oceanic white tips, which often leave no survivors to tell the tale.
The fatality rate in known attacks is 21.5% for the bull shark, 16% for the great white, and 26% for the tiger shark. But in sheer volume, attacks attributed to great whites outnumber the other two species three to one. So there are three times as many survivors to tell the story of their great white attack.
The same bias occurs in other aspects of life.
During World War II, statistician Abraham Wald studied American planes returning from combat.
The military initially wanted to reinforce the areas with the most bullet holes, but Wald suggested reinforcing the areas without bullet holes because those were likely the places that, when hit, caused the planes to crash.
Wald's insight is a perfect example of survivorship bias—by focusing only on surviving planes, the military was at risk of ignoring the more critical weak spots that led to failure.
Survivorship Bias in Youth Sports
Survivorship bias can affect coaches in several ways.
One common example is focusing on successful athletes while ignoring those who didn't make it.
You might design training programs based on the success stories of elite athletes, assuming the same methods will yield similar results for your athletes.
You may adopt a specific coaching style because you have seen others experience success with it.
Only last week someone said to me, “The coaching styles of Serbian coaches are superior. After all, they are one of the best basketball nations in the world!”
He was referring to the coaching style of Zeljko Obradovic, who no doubt will go down as one of the best coaches in Europe.
However, is it because of his coaching style or despite his coaching style?
People tend to miss the stories of athletes who trained just as hard but never reached the same level of success. The stories of the coaches who coached the same way, but never had the same level of success.
It is important to differentiate between correlation and causation!!
Another instance of survivorship bias in sports is when coaches look at the performance of their top players without considering the impact of those who dropped out or quit the team.
This selective focus can lead to an incomplete understanding of team dynamics and obscure the factors contributing to player attrition.
Yet another instance of survivorship bias in sports is observed during the NCAA Tournament in March.
A lot of social media accounts will share the tactical schemes of the best teams, leading to an increase in the usage of these schemes by other teams, including youth teams.
The assumption is that the team was successful because of this scheme.
This was observed with Kentucky Wildcats Dribble Drive Offense, Virginia Tech’s Pack Line Defense or Villanova’s 4 Out Motion Offense.
The thinking is that “if the best defensive team does this, then this must be the reason that they are the best defensive team!”
The Implications of Survivorship Bias
Survivorship bias can have significant implications for youth sports.
If coaches base their decisions on incomplete information, they may create unrealistic expectations for their athletes, leading to frustration and burnout.
Additionally, coaches may overlook critical weaknesses in their training programs, resulting in missed opportunities for improvement.
In sports, survivorship bias can also create a culture where only the most successful stories are celebrated, leaving others feeling marginalised or unimportant.
This can lead to a lack of inclusivity and discourage players who might have valuable insights and experiences to share.
How to Overcome Survivorship Bias
To counter survivorship bias, coaches need to be intentional about seeking out the stories of those who didn't succeed.
This involves looking beyond the surface and asking questions about why certain players left the team or why specific training methods didn't work for others.
Here are some practical strategies to overcome survivorship bias:
Expand Your Data Set
Rather than focusing solely on the success stories, seek out information from a broader range of sources.
This includes interviewing former players, examining the reasons for player attrition, and exploring the experiences of those who didn't reach elite levels.
Create a Culture of Openness
Encourage open communication among players and coaches.
This creates an environment where everyone feels valued, regardless of their level of success.
By fostering inclusivity, coaches can gain insights from a more diverse range of perspectives.
Challenge Assumptions
When designing training programs or making strategic decisions, challenge your assumptions by considering alternative viewpoints.
Ask yourself if you're basing your conclusions solely on success stories or if you're taking into account the experiences of those who faced setbacks.
Learn from Failure
Recognize that failure is an essential part of the learning process.
Encourage players to share their experiences of failure and what they learned from it.
This helps create a more balanced view of success and failure, reducing the impact of survivorship bias.
Conclusion
Survivorship bias is a powerful force that can distort our understanding of success and failure.
In youth sports, coaches must be aware of this bias and take steps to mitigate its impact. If we only consider the training methods of the successful athletes, or the tactical schemes of the successful teams, then we are not getting the full picture.
We need to ask the athletes who didn’t make it and try to figure out their stories as well.
By seeking out diverse perspectives, creating an open culture, challenging assumptions, and learning from failure, coaches can develop a more accurate and inclusive approach to coaching.
In doing so, they can create environments that foster growth and development for all players, not just the survivors.